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This article is part of the series The history of history engineering (HE-X)

HE-4: Garnishing your paradoxes -- detrminism, probabilism, fish soap opera

Contents

Are we missing something?

The previous conversation found some problems with the issue of traveling from one timeline to another. If the spaghetti model is correct and you don't change the timeline, instead jumping to a different one then this implies the effect of determinism. This is because your presence alone must influence the timeline so the only way time travel could work is if the receiving timeline was expecting you? This implies some sort of causality (you) between the timelines so they are coupled in time, making them alternative dimensions and not alternative timelines. Unless of course we're down a wrong path and need to change the model.

Message

Brain

So what is it then? Everything is pre-determined and time-travel is impossible. Or everything is pre-determined, including time-travel? There's gotta be another solution.

This was the big money question.

Our constraint is that time travel must be possible so we need to derive the laws of time travel which make sense, or change the model. If no laws make sense then time travel is infeasible. To do that we have no other option but to put determinism under careful scrutiny, and hopefully -- the axe.

Belief as a transformer

Think about this for a sec. The mechanism for time travel is invisible to us at this moment. We are trying to feel its silhouette by probing a little by little and solving paradoxes. The interesting thing is that the multiverse does not care about what we believe in. It will work regardless. Our model is just how we explain it currently but the underlying invisible object is still there. In our case the object is a multiverse that allows time travel and it's our job to find how it looks like. We're basically looking for a worldbuilding optimum.

It's also entirely possible that several competing beliefs can each find an internally consistent explanation for the multiverse. It's like the multiverse is a mathematical transformer object and it casts different shadows to different dimensions of ...faith. Let me illustrate this. Imagine a standalone car tire. It looks circular from one angle and rectangular from another (assuming you don't know what this is). It's still a tire but looks different from different directions.

For instance -- one explanation could be that everything is pre-determined, including time-travel, whether you like it or not. Another is that everything is a product of free will. Both beliefs can co-exist in peace. Or they can throw tomatoes at each other.

We're mostly going to focus on what the dude and the brain have to say about it but you should know there are other opinions too.

Is the multiverse is boring?

We must stress-test our spaghetti model against different beliefs and see the kinds of paradoxes they would each create. This may help us refine the model, or even change it. We're not trying to satisfy all the different beliefs, just draw inspiration from them.

Yeah, what's your problem with determinism? It seems personal.

I object to determinism on spiritual, philosophical, and scientific grounds. If decisions were predetermined then we need not bother with optimizing for outcomes or trying to foresee them.✓✓

Many people aren't trying to foresee them.

Yes, but evolution, which is more of a mathematical law than a magical force of nature, gave us these huge brains for exactly that purpose -- making choices. Why would it bother with all the risks and folds involved if there was an easier way, one that is already written?✓✓

Otherwise all we'd need is some tea leaves.........✓✓

Plenty of people are using the tea leaf method. Some combine it with crystal balls.

Where's free will then? What would be the point of anything?✓✓

Strapping yourself in and enjoying the movie? Like what I was doing before you started texting me?

You were asleep from boredom, which is what happens in an entirely deterministic universe. The only variance in experience is whether you realize it. I cannot accept a universe whose entire purpose is to be fast-forwarded.✓✓

The better mental model is always the one with less amount of exceptions and with higher internal consistency. This is inconsistent with our constraints.✓✓

Our first worldbuilding constraint was that time-travel must be possible. It seems that the only direction of solutions which doesn't come with silly paradoxes is that there must be at least some degree of free will and probabilism. The presence of free will is currently a property derived from time travel but we may as well formalize it into a constraint.

Lore

The multiverse can't be fundamentally boring (aka there must be some free will).

This is going somewhere fun, literally.

Lore

Our current list of constraints is thus far:

Time travel must be possible.
There must be free will.

Fish soap opera

Just kidding, having free will is not necessarily going to be fun but it certainly beats the possibility of the time traveler's version hell. You wonder what that is?

I must admit, a pre-determined universe does sound a bit boring. Imagine someone from the future giving you spoilers about your favorite series and its upcoming seasons! You wouldn't be able to do anything about it and worse -- it was meant to be.

What if, in your search for ultimate hedonism, you jump to an alternative timeline where everyone is a fishperson? Forced to watch fish soap opera? And you lose your ability to jump away?✓✓

I would assume the multiverse hates me and it's personal. Forced to watch 1,023,232 episodes of the romance between Shrimpedro and Calamaria...

Don't forget the love triangle with Clamargaret. Oh and the seahorse trainer...✓✓

GET ME OUT OF THERE! 😭😭😭

Do you want to believe in a deterministic multiverse that could create and stick to such horrors?

Time travel partisanry

Let's say for a moment that time travelers exist... How would they even make sense of all these possibilities? There's probably several beliefs that can explain the multiverse.

Yeah and we seem to be struggling to find a single working one...✓✓

We'll get there -- I still have some bones to pick but at least it seems that we can throw away a fully deterministic multiverse.

Watch out for the fish bones...✓✓

The brain had no idea exactly how politically divided is a society exposed to every single political idea ever all at the same time... There are factions within factions within factions. It's less of a left vs right and more of an up vs down, sometimes in and out. More importantly -- it's very much a gradient rather than camps. Don't get me wrong, the most extreme on every side are very much building camps and not for peaceful purposes.

The two largest and most extreme groups are The Cult of Pastafaric Determinists (CPDs) and the Coalition of Fundamental Probabilists (CFPs) which are mortal enemies. What's worse their political movements span the entire timeline, often expressed as similar historic movements appearing over and over again. History literally repeats itself because of them.

Oh and there's the Desciples of Plato (DOPs) which the extremists mistrust due to them not fitting cleanly into either camp. Such a human thing to do, isn't it? This group is not set on any one belief and are more interested in experiencing the multiverse rather than throwing tomatoes or trying to sauce their opponents. Some think of them as insane hedonists, others -- as scientists, maybe travelers.

Whatever, the morale of the story here is that you should be cautious of any model that tries to hammer a continuous variable into a binary classification (barring of course non-zero thresholds).

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